Quick Look: What does a Coinbase NFT Platform Really Mean for NFTs?
So, Coinbase announced their NFT marketplace. What does this mean for us?
(Spoiler: a whole lot)
Let’s talk about that…
Before we get started, here is the link to the original tweet:
1/ Some numbers (according to Dune Analytics — @DuneAnalytics):
There are ~200,000 monthly active traders on @opensea currently, but this number peaked in 09/2021 at ~281,000.
2/ If we look at the monthly volume for September, we see that ~$3,002,000,000 was exchanged on Opensea in that month. If we take that volume and divide it by the 281,000 active traders, we can assume that averaged out across all traders, each trader spent ~$10,600. Wild, indeed.
3/ Now, let’s take a look at Coinbase. These numbers are taken from NASDAQ.com:
There are > 68,000,000 users on Coinbase.
There were ~8,800,000 monthly transacting users in Q2 of 2021 — this is a 44% increase from Q1.
4/ The next section of this thread will be speculative, but worth high consideration, given the data we have.
First, I’d like to draw attention to the fact that as of this writing, the Coinbase NFT Platform waitlist has > 1.3 million signups (as of day 2).
Talk about velocity.
5/ 1.3 million is equivalent to over 1.5% of Coinbase’s users.
I’m sure even they are surprised at this response, considering that on day 2 of their waitlist being out, they have, in signups, ~4.6x the peak users that Opensea has EVER had.
6/ So what does this tell us?
📢 NORMAL PEOPLE WANT NFTS. Gee really? Go figure. (This is our big “I told you so” moment, by the way. Yell it from the rooftops.)
Now, onto the speculative part! Until now, it has all been hard facts and statistics. Ah, my inner ‘degen’ emerges.
7/ Let’s try and project how much money could be coming into the NFT market as a result of this platform, based on the knowledge that we have.
Conservatively, we can take the 8.8 million active wallets on Coinbase and multiply that by a 2% conversion rate.
8/ Notice, I said “conservatively” and am not taking the 68m users, or a higher %. So,
8.8m * .02 = ~176,000 users.
Now, let’s take the 1.3 million that have already signed up for the waitlist, and multiply by, say, 1.7% to account for overlap between this and the 8 million.
9/ 1.3 million * .017 = ~22,100 users.
176,000 + 22,100 = ~198,100 users that we can assume will be, for the most part, new and active in the NFT community. That would be amazing!
10/ So back to that $10.6k average spend… I know we are assuming a lot, but it is fun to run through (and informative).
If we assume that the average spend will hold true on Coinbases platform, then this 198,100 new people could bring $2,099,860,000 in new dollars to NFTs.
11/ I know it took a bit of assuming to get there, but at the same time, if you examine the velocity with which NFTs have been growing, the businesses recognizing value in the space, and the behemoth that Coinbase is, I don’t think another ~$2.1b in growth is out of the question.
12/ This was a long thread, but if you made it to the end, I appreciate you. I really hope you were able to gain some value from it. I will be putting this on my Medium (link in bio), as threads do get lost.
Finally, RTs are much appreciated 🍻
Much love,
dawg 🌙
